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.49 The standard expectations about opposi-tion elite and the media hold in this case: both simply maintained the ad-ministration s frame.Indeed, the media devoted more print pages andbroadcast time to discussing the  murder frame involving the shoot-down of KAL 007 than it did to the  technical glitch frame involving IranAir 655.50Clearly Entman is proposing what some of the scholars discussedabove contend: a government can control its own response to a foreignpolicy event when it stays on top of the event, framing and explaining theevent and the country s response to it.When policy makers let othersdomestic political opponents, media define the event, policy makerslose control of the event.Foreign policy choices in such a case are deter-mined by actors outside the regime, if the regime cannot succeed in dis-tracting the public in order to maintain its own foreign policy frame.Ul-timately, the regime that loses control of the frame loses control of thepolicy.When a foreign policy event is ambiguous, so that the dominant culturehas no immediate, habitual response, opposition elites and the media maybe able to offer alternative frames that win critical support among parts ofthe public.Entman warns that the governing elites tread dangerous wa-ters here and may mismanage the foreign policy event (that is, let othersframe the situation and the solution)  especially if it cannot find com-pelling schemas that support its line. 51 In the American case, the end ofthe Cold War shattered many dominant schemas, making the public s re-sponse to events less predictable and potentially enhancing the role of the 128 Chapter 7media in framing events.In the absence of an all-encompassing schemalike the Cold War, media and elites (governing and oppositional) putmore time into monitoring public opinion in order to discern whichevents would resonate and how.52 Ultimately, this means that under-standing public sentiment becomes critical to the shaping of policy thatwill be supported by the public.A public that is disorganized in terms ofits dominant political narrative will not respond in any uniform way to aforeign policy venture.This could be costly to the regime that attempts aforeign policy action that does not resonate as true or right with the pub-lic.The Republican Party s loss of the U.S.Congress in the 2006 electionsmay reflect the cost to governing elites who choose to wage a war thatdoes not fit a dominant cultural schema.CHAPTER REVIEW" There is little scholarly agreement on the impact of public opinion onpolicy making other than that the impact is probably indirect." There is little scholarly and practitioner agreement on the  CNN ef-fect, but policy makers seem to believe the effect is real." Scholarship on the  CNN effect shows that it has no impact on pol-icy once decision makers have already agreed on a course of action." When a government stays in control of the  framing of a foreignpolicy event, it generally can control the views of the opposition, me-dia, and the public on that event." When a government lets others define and explain a foreign policyevent, it stands to lose control of its own response to that event. 8'Great PowersIN THIS CHAPTER" Position and Power" The Elusive Concept of Power" Who Gets to Be a Great Power?" What Do Great Powers Do?" The Unique Position of the United States" American Foreign Policy under George W.Bush" Chapter ReviewCases Featured in This Chapter" The projection that India and China will be the great powers by 2020and that the  map and rules of the game of global politics willchange as a result." How the U.S.military won the battle but not the  war against un-ruly, disorganized Somalian factions in the Battle of the Black Sea,also known as the Black Hawk Down incident, in October 1993." The melding of neoconservative and realist foreign policy goals inthe foreign policy of the George W.Bush administration.POSITION AND POWERThe National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the U.S.intelligence commu-nity s center for medium- and long-term strategic thinking.The NIC s129 130 Chapter 8purpose is to produce National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) and unclas-sified  over the horizon reports about trends in world politics.The NICworks under and reports directly to the director of national intelligence.During the Bush 2 administration, NIEs became notorious for what theysaid, what they did not say, and what the administration read them to say.NIEs bring together the analyses of many U.S.intelligence-gatheringagencies on particular topics.The  over the horizon NIC reports makeuse of the collective understanding of trends in the world derived fromexperts from different agencies of the government and from nongovern-mental experts from around the world.In a report entitled  Mapping the Global Future, the NIC looked attrends to get a sense of the world in 2020 [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]